Developing Vaccines to Wage War on Variants

 

This post is my personal non-professional record of the of the coronavirus saga, with an intention to access in a few years time from now.

The style purely reflects my present laziness towards an original narrative, and my thanks go to Adam Millar of CBC, and some learned scientists, for some of the quoted content.

“Experts state that unvaccinated Canadians are a 'tinderbox' that threatens Canada more than virus variants.”

In my view, this is a calculated guess that doesn’t study the various reasons why some people refuse, or avoid, vaccination. 

“Daily COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths have dropped dramatically across the country to levels not seen since the fall, while shipments of vaccines are set to grow substantially — with more than 5.3 million doses arriving next week alone.  

To date, more than 28 million vaccine doses have been administered across Canada, about 72 per cent of eligible Canadians have at least one shot and close to 12 per cent have two.”

This is all good news … and I look forward to getting my haircut, soon.

“Yet there have been growing concerns over the spread of variants that have raised doubts about whether we can safely reopen society in Canada's hardest hit regions, particularly as the United Kingdom grapples with the variant known as delta, or B.1.617."

“Despite the many uncertainties that lie ahead, experts say that early data from the U.K. and a new study just released in British Columbia point to the same way forward — getting as many shot in arms as soon as possible.” 

Viruses spread —  that’s what they do.  Be concerned, but let’s not build hurdles against safely re-opening society.  Focus, specifically, on any hard hit regions, but let’s vaccinate diligently and, now, permit businesses to re-open and serve patio lunches to entertain us once more.

"A recent study from Public Health England (PHE) looked at just how effective the first dose is against the delta variant.”

“The study found the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88 per cent effective against symptomatic disease from the delta variant two weeks after the second dose, compared to 93 per cent against the B.1.1.7 variant, also known as alpha.”

Very little has been mentioned about those of us who may be asymptomatic.  Are we?  Perhaps, the antibodies that were strengthened from an earlier ‘flu’ shot could have saved us (The focus of the anti-vaccers).   Have we been tested?  How many examples of today’s negative tests become positive tomorrow.  But we are told not to argue with science.

“Two doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford shot were found to be just 60 per cent effective against COVID-19 symptoms from delta, compared to 66 per cent against alpha.”

“And a single dose of Pfizer and AstraZeneca were each only about 33 per cent effective against delta.”

No surprises here.

“Experts say it's important to remember that the study looked at the vaccine's ability to prevent COVID-19 symptoms, which can range from mild to severe, and the early estimates on vaccine effectiveness against the variants don't tell the whole story.” 

Really?

"One dose of the vaccine, whether it was Pfizer or AstraZeneca, still actually provided quite a bit of protection against severe illness and certainly against hospitalization," said Prof. Jason Kindrachuk, an assistant professor and Canada Research Chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba.”

"Yes we still need to get two doses, but you know what? Even with a single dose these vaccines work amazingly well.”

But you “need” two doses.  Really.

“Kindrachuk says that while delta reinforces the need to fully vaccinate high-risk individuals, like older Canadians and the immunocompromised, getting shots into as many arms as possible will continue to lower community transmission and the spread of variants overall.” 

My studies indicate that people in all age groups are dying.  It is easy to highlight “older” Canadians, while forgetting how vulnerable they are,  packed into long-term facilities will additional illnesses other than a coronavirus

"The best thing that we can do is stick to a vaccination plan and keep going with it until our entire population is covered by not just one, but two doses. That's going to be the most effective strategy — not trying to get too caught up in the drama of a new variant." 

As the abbot, who asked the novice, pointing to the sky, said,  “What do you see?”    “Your finger, Oh Master.”  was the excited reply. 

“New Canadian research from the B.C. Centre for Disease Control (BCCDC) also underscored the effectiveness of even just one dose of mRNA vaccines against the variants and provided new insight into the gamma variant, also known as P.1, for the first time.” 

Could this be the moment when someone shouts, “STOP THE PRESSES!”

"The preprint study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, found that a single dose of either Pfizer or Moderna cut the risk of COVID-19 for older adults by about two-thirds during the peak of the spring wave in B.C.”

“The observational study looked at close to 17,000 people aged 70 and older between April 4 and May 1 — a critical time when both the alpha and gamma made up about 70 per cent of cases circulating in the province.” 

If only people aged 70 and older were studied, how was this test defined — was there , or will there be, studies of those people aged 69 and younger …  or, for the moment, are we just guessing?

“Skowronski says the study provides the world's first vaccine effectiveness estimate against the gamma variant and was made possible due to the unique position B.C. found itself in, with multiple variants circulating at the same time unlike anywhere else in the world.”

"We were able to derive and show that protection was maintained against P.1, which remained an open question globally," Skowronski said. "So we have addressed that question and shown comparable protections to B.1.1.7." 

This is quite encouraging.

"Of course we want everybody to get the second dose but I still am very optimistic." 

Oh dear, here we go again!

“But Skowronski cautions Canadians not to draw too many conclusions from the data emerging from the U.K. on the delta variant, or any one study, due to the fact that it's largely observational and needs to be backed up by real-world immunogenicity research, which measures the immune responses that a vaccine generates.” 

“Immunogenicity”, now, there’s a nice word to encourage a research grant increase.

“Experts agree the biggest threat to Canadians at the moment isn't variants — despite the dizzying pace of research being released worldwide — it's not being vaccinated at all.” 

They’ll not give up, will they.

"What we can all do is get vaccinated and try to reduce our contacts to reduce the opportunity for the virus to mutate — that's going to be the biggest role that we can play in controlling variants." 

That, is a very good point.

"Vaccinations are going to keep getting out and once we hit that threshold, things are going to change very, very quickly. I think they already are, but I think they're going to change substantially in the next few weeks.”

“Weeks”?

Conclusion

May I remind you that I collated this information for a personal reason, using my Blog as the vehicle.  Additionally, it should reveal my belief against the Second vaccination because there is no crystal ball or proof that my asymptomatic body is quite fine and wishes to avoid any possible, dangerous, side effects.  But my planned vacation will require proof of Full vaccination. Ho-hum.

Coronavirus -- Unanswered Questions

"Develop a Vaccine and Vaccinate"

Said and done -- by the previous administration and continued by the present illegitimate administration (More later, probably).  But there were always questions and, some, still remain. 

1. Wear face masks and maintain two-metre distancing.  Sufficiently done, but with much complaining.
2. Close all public venues, i.e., stores and restaurants ... and hair salons, except grocery stores.  Sufficiently done, and physical fighting developing. 
3. Distribute vaccines ... months behind schedule, with uncertainty of second doses.
4. And politically-inspired conspiracy theories :

• Bats in and out of a wet-market near to the Wuhan laboratory ... proven unlikely.

•  Bungling, incompetent scientists at the Wuhan laboratory ... highly likely. 

•  A coronavirus being "weaponized" and, now, proven to be highly efficient.

• Funded by the US government (See Dr. Fauci). 

•  "Why on Earth would China weaponize a virus within their own country liable to kill their own people?"  (Dr. Fauci)  Obvious answer, long-range cruise missiles, etc. 

•  Note;  All staff at the Wuhan laboratory are PLA personnel supervising civil scientists from China, US, and Europe. 

 Let us pray.  🙏 

A World Order

There are signs of a proverbial light at the end of the tunnel for the  mysterious coronavirus pandemic, and some amongst us are redirecting our thoughts to the increasing threat of Chinese world dominance.  

This morning, I found myself moving my viewpoint.  I remembered studies of the global population rate of growth — to be more accurate, the decreasing rate of growth.  Global demographic trends indicate a serious change in world order by the 22nd century.  I know … dust to dust, etc. 

Thus, perhaps, the Chinese world dominance idea needs to be rethought. There is a very obvious decline in the rate of population growth in China … certainly, if we ignore the rape of Uyghur women by Han Chinese [Sorry, I couldn’t resist that].  But, I don’t wish to focus on the human rights issue, at this moment.

A serious declining rate of population growth is well documented, not only in China, but also in Japan … and many countries globally.  There is just one exception — Islamic countries.  Muslim birth rates are exceeding forecasts by unusual numbers for religious and political reasons. 

The extraordinary picture that I wish to share with you, now, is one where an Islamic muezzin can be seen screaming from the rooftops of Buddhist temples, and also from the steeples of Christian cathedrals.

Yes, a change in the world order — religious and political — that we haven’t really envisaged. 

Japanese Sexism

 Why Japan can't shake sexism

A short while ago, Yoshiro Mori, the Tokyo Olympic boss, made global headlines when he stated at a Japanese Olympic Committee meeting that women talked too much.  A week later, he resigned, and was replaced by a, younger, female executive.  

Companies criticised Mr Mori’s comments, but some of them have less than 1% female board members — something that needs to change — but to what affect.  Could this be just the tip of the iceberg.  

The topic of gender equality keeps making headlines in Japan, for all the wrong reasons. Indeed, just a few days after Mori resigned, the ruling party hit the news again by announcing that, while it was willing to allow women to attend its all-male board meetings, they would not be allowed to speak.  

These incidents coincide with a steady drop by Japan in global gender equality rankings; the World Economic Forum describes the country’s gender gap as the largest amongst advanced economies. 

An entrenched division of labour has impacted population growth. Some women, faced with the prospect of giving up work or stepping off the career track when they have children, are having fewer children, or none at all. Japan’s birth rate is currently at a record low. Its marriage rate is also plummeting – one factor there is that men worry they can’t support a family on just their salary. 

Japanese society’s unspoken etiquette: in general, people don’t get into arguments, particularly with their elders. Japan is a country where people find it difficult to speak out regardless of your age or gender, it is said, If you do, you could be seen as selfish. 

It’s the Japanese concept of “reading the air” – kuuki o yomu  in Japanese. Even if you find someone’s remarks sexist, many choose not to confront the issue, so that the situation doesn’t become awkward. In the past, even if these leaders were criticised, they were able to apologise. 

I must close, for the moment, with a related comment that is not discussed or debated.  The Japanese ancient culture is quite unique and, in my view, should be preserved.  Dropping Japanese demographics will introduce, so-called, multiculturalism.  Should there be some concern that within a few more generations, the clam, serene, Buddhist temple culture will be replaced by the amplified voice of a muezzin. 

Have you noticed how the unaddressed subject of immigration appears everywhere.

My Personal Virus Pandemic

How far back in time do we need to go to see a picture of my personal story of vaccination.  It is interesting what one remembers about World War II.  Dad was in Germany, or was it Belgium, probably both.  Mum was at home juggling the coupons in the ration books, and I was playing with our white terrier dog — interestingly, I can’t remember that we ever went for a walk.  Food was grown in the garden, and there was a milk and a butcher’s shop.  I remember rabbits hanging from the ceiling, and the butcher saying that it was easier if the rabbits were alive when he skinned them, at least that’s what he told me.  Later, the milk was delivered by a man wearing a blue and white apron that he wore in the shop, sometimes he had a battery-powered van … the milk was topped with cream in those days.

Vaccinations were commonplace then.  Supposedly, there were good reasons for vaccination;  measles, smallpox, polio — all with blunt needles, unlike today.  Even when I joined the Royal Air Force it continued … there were more overseas appointments at that time.

Wow, have I digressed (again).

Later, when teaching in China (PRC) in 2002,  there was an epidemic of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).  There was very little panic — we were confined to campus for one week, and I don’t remember face masks.  In fact, I had forgotten about it until CoviD-19 arrived in Canada. 

My Covid-19 Theory

I have a theory.  As someone who always takes advantage of the yearly influenza vaccination, I believe that each time the body’s immune system develops protection from disease, although a specific disease is the purpose of the vaccine, the immune system, to a lesser degree,  can effect other diseases.  Therefore, although the flu is a coronavirus-like disease, vaccination against it may have a protectional ability with the CoviD-19 disease.  I don’t have access to the data, but it would interest me what percentage of those who died had a current flu vaccination — not to mention the overall health of the victim.

My theory becomes important when there is further examination of the vaccines — not the manufacturer, per se, but in comparison by disease.  Specifically, in my experience, the flu vaccine.  In 2020, my pharmacist said that he was giving me the 2019 vaccine because the 2020 variant had run out.  This must, importantly, cause a question of immediate efficacy.  Being healthy, it seemed to have been effective for me.  BUT the flu virus is fairly stable in comparison to Covid-19.  There are minor differences in the molecular composition of each vaccine, and these differences will become less in the future (An example of the expedited research and development).  Nevertheless, already the virus has morphed into other forms that complicate efficacy (To be continued).

Therefore, face masks become part of long-term care … for everyone.