Autonomous Driving

The future of driving with an automatic pilot system 

       Things having not been going well for autonomous automobiles recently.  A Tesla Model X was involved in a crash while on autopilot.  A Uber self-driving vehicle struck and killed a pedestrian walking her bicycle,  Then, there was a driver whose Model S drove him right into a truck.  All of this is causing an amount of serious anxiety.  There are many questions, for example;  How safe are they at the moment?  Will they be safer than human drivers?  And finally, what are various safety agencies doing about the problem?

     In the U.S., it has been calculated that there were 1.18 fatalities per 100 million miles driven by all automobiles in 2016.  This is a clever statistic by the Administration to try to show less than those who were killed by handguns.  Google started testing autonomous automobiles in 2009 and there still needs to be greater attention given to the problems.

     The problem, if it is ever to be resolved, is to test these cars in real-world conditions with mandatory ‘safety drivers’ behind the wheel at all times.  But that is easier said than done.

     In the early days of aviation, aircraft required the continuous attention of a pilot to fly safely.  The first aircraft autopilot was developed in 1912. It permitted the aircraft to fly straight and level on a compass course without a pilot's attention, greatly reducing the pilot's workload.  This was more than 100 years ago.  Today, we still have a problem.  Although some aircraft can fly autonomously, including the takeoff and landing, it seems that an autonomously enabled car may still crash into something.

     Thus, at the moment, they are not safe, they may never be more safe than skilled drivers, and safety agencies need to do more.

     If an aircraft can land in the exact center of a runway at 150 knots, and taxi to the gate on autopilot, even with both a first and a second pilot in place, what is next?  Aircraft are using a basic form of artificial intelligence (A.I.).  That’s next.

 Aircraft in the air, travelling at 300 knots, are still monitored and controlled from the ground (A.T.C.) by highly trained humans.  Therefore, for many more decades, even with A.I., automobiles will require safety drivers … just in case.

Aerospace 1 - Bombardier CSeries

My profile indicates that aerospace is a favorite subject of mine and, therefore, during this week of the Paris Air Show, it seems quite natural to write on this subject.

As we struggle to emerge from the recent recession, the aircraft industry is very cautious about predictions that attempt to balance future airline quantity requirements with related research into improving usage costs. Analysts predict that airlines will need $4 trillion worth of new aircraft during the next 20 years and, although there is an emphasis on eco-friendly aircraft, airlines focus on the financial bottom line. Thus, the two giants of the aircraft industry, Airbus and Boeing, should be concerned about the quiet ascendance of Bombardier into third place.

I have always been impressed by Bombardier’s innovation since visiting their early manufacturing facility at Cartierville in Montreal in the 1980’s (Originally, a small airfield used by Canadair). Their use of giant milling machines to produce fuselage side panels for the Challenger which did not require the conventional ribs and framing and, thus, reducing weight, together with laminar-flow wing surfaces for improved aerodynamics, was something that, being a sailplane pilot, impressed me quite a lot.

Thirty years of quiet innovation has brought Bombardier into serious competition with Airbus and Boeing, and the new CSeries aircraft is, in my opinion, bound to be a success. Not only is its composite airframe more advanced in design, but the new geared turbofan engine designed by Pratt & Whitney is causing the competition to swiftly play ‘catch up’. Airbus developing the new-engined A320neo compromise, and Boeing considering a whole new B-737 replacement (The new engine seems too large for the existing wing-to-ground clearance). Thus, it will be difficult for both companies to deliver ahead of the CSeries.

Finally, it is delightful to read that, on the first day, Bombardier has disclosed firm orders for ten of the CSeries at the Paris Air Show, with options for a further six. It is also noteworthy that Qatar Airlines CEO Akbar Al Baker, said, when asked whether he was considering another jet of similar size “The CSeries is a class above others in that category”.

It will be inspiring to dream of the industry’s ‘Big Three’.