Recently, I had a discussion with a friend via e-Mail and feel it useful to expand the audience.
North Korea - Unfortunately, China is the problem. I believe that Xi trusts that the US would NOT move into the northern area of a unified, and peaceful, Korea. Additionally, there would be NO reason for Koreans to rush to enter China when there would be a free, although controlled, southern passage. Thus, it’s the usual Chinese bluff. China will not suffer badly by banning coal imports from Korea as they continue to export oil to Korea. In other words, Xi’s duplicitous, crafty, promise of Chinese sanctions to Trump was clever … but, I suspect that Trump can see that and, at the moment, Trump has the Joker card.
Of course, every pack has two Jokers. 😟
George Friedman's 70% chance of attack requires a definition of the word ‘attack’. I hope the the US Defence Secretary will very soon issue an order to destroy ALL future (illegal) missile tests upon launch. This will give Little Fat Boy pause … and it could not be condemned by do-nothing China.
Behind all this, of course, is China’s expansion into the so-called South China Sea ….
Please explain this passage in your blog
ReplyDelete"there would be NO reason for Koreans to rush to enter China when there would be a free, although controlled, southern passage."
ReplyDeleteThat China does not want an exodus of mass proportions of northern Koreans, I hope, goes without saying (Koreans are closely related to the Japanese).
My statement assumes the period following the transition of a peaceful Korea governed from Seoul. There would be the inevitable rush to travel south which would require strict, but temporary, controls. Similar to the East-West Germany example.
ReplyDeleteChina warns U.S. to remove warship from South China Sea, claims America is trespassing on its territory
Bloomberg, Washington Post | May 25, 2017 9:56 AM ET
The Korea situation seems to be escalating. Trump could get angry and order a missile attack like he did in Syria. Perhaps take out their missile launch capability.
ReplyDeleteThe answer to my question confirms you were speaking hypothetically that an unlikely scenario played out. That is the Koreas united under a Seoul-based crony capitalist government.
ReplyDeleteThe words 'cronyism and government are synonymous ... everywhere.
I doubt if the northern Koreans will mind.