Ukraine, An Answer
If I could ask Vladimir Putin a question, it would be, why is it important to invade Ukraine, when Russia has so much more land in the East to develop. Of course, you know that’s a rhetorical question (He is terrible at returning my calls).
While Crimea has been annexed by Russia with, apparently, little opposition by the Crimean people, most of the world still considers it part of Ukraine. But the country, as a whole, has little wish to rejoin Russia and become part of Putin’s obvious desire to reconstruct the union of socialist republics, in a way that Napoleon Buonaparte would admire. Nevertheless, we must be cautious about his egotistical czarist ambitions.
It is worth mentioning here that Ukraine is made up of 78% ethnic Ukrainians, and 17% of ethnic Russian immigrants. According to the Constitution the Ukrainian language is the official language, although the Russian language is spoken by most people, due, in my opinion, to the past dominance of the USSR. In February 2014, the Ukrainian Parliament voted to repeal the law on regional languages, making Ukrainian the sole state language at all levels; however, this was vetoed (for the moment) by the acting President in March.
In my view, the weak standoff between the government in Kiev and a few Eastern provinces has only one answer, with many parts, the main two are: 1. Repeal the language law, after all, it was fine for Nikita Khrushchev (Russian President) to speak Ukrainian for most of his life. 2. Remove dual citizenship. Those who choose not to be Ukrainian shall be given short-term (but renewal) resident visas and, if possible, encouraged to return to their country of origin (This should include those born in [the] Ukraine who refuse to take Ukraine citizenship). The country will not develop, in my opinion, as a harmonious entity while there is a destructive ‘underground’ ethnic opposition.
By the way, I have studied the complicated history, and you may too.
By the way, I have studied the complicated history, and you may too.
I am sure (and hope) that this subject is controversial, and welcome your views.
Putin sat in the stands as host of the Sochi Olympics being fawned on by world leaders, movers and shakers at the opening and closing celebrations. I remember close up images of his face with his devious eyes and smirk like smile. He knew that in two weeks he would move on the Crimea and that he would poke a stick in the eye of NATO.
ReplyDeleteOf course being devious is natural in that part of the world. Corruption is the way of life in Russia. Putin bled the treasury to stage the games. The president of the Ukraine did the same before the people rose up against him. Do you remember pictures of the palace he built and the gaudy treasures? Democracy and responsible government are tentative in many western countries including Canada so imagine how much less so it is in former soviet states. We at least have the rule of law but there is no rule of law in that part of the world.
The Russian people feel that the collapse of the Soviet Union is a blot on their national psyche. Their nation was defeated by the US and NATO. They were betrayed by Gorbachev and suffered economically under Yeltsin. Putin came to the presidency and gave them pride and they support him. Putin is a very dangerous man. Where will he strike next? The Ukraine is just a warm up, the Polish people already fear they are on the menu. The bear has awakened.
You make an excellent comment John; I can't fault your thinking and insight, but I hope to read your personal answer to the Ukraine problem sometime.
DeleteUkraine is not a problem. It has always been a part of Russia or an ally. Ukrainians became disillusioned with corruption and which people benefited from it. They don't want Putin's friends to be their oligarchs as was the case before the rebellion. They want their own oligarchs. If Putin can agree with that the war will end.
DeleteI am baffled by your belief that Ukraine is not a problem. Perhaps, I misunderstand you.
DeleteCertainly, the 'situation' in Ukraine is a serious problem, for many reasons, and little to do with history. Ukraine is a separate state recognized by the UN and, thus, also NATO. As yet, even Crimea is only recognized by Russia (The legality of a referendum that was not authorized by the government in Kiev is unacceptable) and, if nothing else, exists only as an irritant.
Back to the problem, as I see it. Firstly, I would like to mention the, still unsolved, attack of the Malaysian Air MH17 aircraft.
Firstly, it is known that the Russian-backed rebels in Eastern Ukraine have access to shoulder-launched SAM's (Surface to Air Missiles) but they are for use against low-flying attack aircraft and not aircraft cruising at 35,000 feet. This leaves either the Ukrainian or Russian army's use of their longer range SAM's.
My theory, is that a poorly trained and 'trigger happy, SAM operator, thought that MH17 was a reconnaissance aircraft and, thus, brought it down (To the surprise of both Mr. Putin and Mr. Poroshenko).
This terrible event is crucial to what happened next.
It is known that Russian tanks and APC's (Armoured Personnel Carriers) in large numbers had already invaded the eastern parts of the country, and large numbers of the Russian army were massed near the northern border (Described is a regular maneuver exercise. Ha, ha!). Not to mention an increased presence of Russian naval destroyers in the Black Sea. This was all part of Mr. Putin's secret invasion plan.
But, catastrophe! The unintended MH17 disaster, intended only by the SAM operator, created an international incident, and put NATO units, already established on Ukraine soil, on high alert.
It has been said that, should Russia have had an element of surprise, it could have quickly invaded Ukraine, at least, as far as the Dipro River within days, and high casualties (Expendable pawns on Mr. Putin's chessboard). But, NATO was in the way, and it remains so.
Therefore, with falling oil prices, international sanctions, an increased strengthening of NATO forces in Ukraine and adjoining countries, and a loss of the surprise element, Mr. Putin is up to his neck in proverbial crocodiles (as some would say). At this point he would play the Queen (if he had one).
I put it to you that, therefore, someone has a problem. And I can't wait to read the next episode.
You have probably identified Putin's strategy to punish Ukraine and reclaim part its territory. He and his advisers are diabolically clever and could have succeeded except for a trigger happy soldier. Putin cannot back down without losing face in Russia and Russians have already lost face in many ways. I don't know what he should do now. A prudent man might lay low and talk until conditions change but is he prudent? You are a strategist so tell us how you would play the hand without a trump card.
DeleteSome may see the situation as 'stalemate'. Others may view Russia with weak bishops surrounded by simple pawns, and obsequious knights. But there are both Ukrainian and EU knights. Nevertheless, Putin may use his queen (The PRC) to great advantage.
DeleteWe know he wants to rebuild the Soviet Union but that isn't going to happen.
DeleteWill be provoke a war with NATO over Ukraine? What do you think is Putin's end game.
To be honest, I don't believe that he has an 'end game'. I think that he is obviously a tyrant, a bully, and his ambition is to return control of all the independent states of the former USSR from Moscow. By 'hook or by crook', as we say, and he will stop at nothing.
DeleteHaving said that, he has a modicum of intelligence that assures him that NATO doesn't have any intention of invading Russia, which proves his tyrannical intentions.
Perhaps, I should start a rumour about Ukraine not giving all the nuclear warheads back to Russia. If someone could hack my computer and change my passwords, I'm sure that someone could change the warhead activation codes.
PS: I read recently that the next James Bond actor will be 'coloured'. I think that a far-fetched idea, but he could be Ukrainian. Copyright BMc.
John, at your suggestion, I've just watched CBC's 'Putin's Long Shadow'. I didn't know all the details before, but nothing surprises me about him. It's interesting that, because of his crimes, he is unable to step down. So, is he headed towards martyrdom or escape to a secret hiding place ... to await a call from the ICC. Nevertheless, he seems safe as long as he remains President. It doesn't bode well for Ukraine.
DeleteRussia sells oil and needs revenue. Saudi causes the price of oil to drop starving Russia of revenue. ISIS also sells oil and revenue dries up.
DeleteWhat can Putin do? He supports Assad who fights ISIS. Saudi people support ISIS. The war is a stale mate for lack of funds except for Saudi funds.
See, it's all linked.
Where is Obama in all this? Does he encourage Saudi to drop the oil price. I think so in spite of what it does to Keystone, fracking and the oil sands.
Maybe Putin will either stop the war on Ukraine or push harder to take over Ukraine and then go for Poland. Your call my friend.
As I have said before (somewhere) he will divide Ukraine at the main river that runs north/south.
DeleteIf it were the head of NATO, I'd move a small token, advanced, force to the east of that river, immediately.
I don't think NATO can operate in Ukraine. The Dnieper River splits a third of the country to the east and Kiev is on the river to the north. What will that leave of the country. Putin has a plan but we don't know what it is yet. The road called the Leninsky Prospekt runs directly from Moscow to Kiev like an umbilical cord attaching the two cities.
DeleteI think Ukraine is toast as it is today.
Two thirds would make them about the same as Poland and Romania, and still much bigger than the other ex-block states ... then he may pause for a short while. I don't know how I would stop him if he decided to go that way. Without China the UN would be helpless (actually, with China, they would still be helpless, unless they wanted WWIII).
DeleteI thought that NATO could go anywhere that they were invited, but I'll take your word.
Maybe NATO can go anywhere if it is invited. I dunno. Was Afghanistan a NATO operation or an American led military force of the willing allies or was that Iraq. They make up names to justify anywhere Washington wants to invade. NATO can and is reinforcing forces in countries like Poland and the Baltic states that are members of NATO. I think Ukraine might be on its own in that regard.
DeleteWell, if Ukraine needs to become a member of NATO, then, NATO had better pull its finger out quick.
DeleteThe country's name is just Ukraine, not "the" Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteI think reading Russka (a novel by Edward Rutherford) is one good way to see into the psyche of people in that part of the world. They are quite different from those in "the West." Yes, it's a novel, but is well researched and is more historical than fictional.
Ha, ha, Debby! That is a tempting challenge.
ReplyDeleteHaving, recently, spent some time in the People's Republic of Bangladesh, the Kingdom of Thailand, and the People's Republic of China, not to mention my origin in the UK., I was bound to study my computer's integral dictionary that says: U.kraine [yoo'kran; you,kran] (also the U.kraine).
Nevertheless, I do agree with you (Sorry, John) and thank you for reminding me of the saying; 'A good excuse is a poor reason'.
It will be necessary to leave the error without amendment for fear that other readers will question your comment.
I would be interested in your personal forecast for the Ukraine situation?
Thanks for your usual diligence (I knew that I should always rely on you). I hope that you and Mike have a Happy and Warm New Year.