Sunday 13 June 2021

Developing Vaccines to Wage War on Variants

 

This post is my personal non-professional record of the of the coronavirus saga, with an intention to access in a few years time from now.


The style purely reflects my present laziness towards an original narrative, and my thanks go to Adam Millar of CBC, and some learned scientists, for some of the quoted content.



“Experts state that unvaccinated Canadians are a 'tinderbox' that threatens Canada more than virus variants.”


In my view, this is a calculated guess that doesn’t study the various reasons why some people refuse, or avoid, vaccination. 






“Daily COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths have dropped dramatically across the country to levels not seen since the fall, while shipments of vaccines are set to grow substantially — with more than 5.3 million doses arriving next week alone.  


To date, more than 28 million vaccine doses have been administered across Canada, about 72 per cent of eligible Canadians have at least one shot and close to 12 per cent have two.”


This is all good news … and I look forward to getting my haircut, soon.



“Yet there have been growing concerns over the spread of variants that have raised doubts about whether we can safely reopen society in Canada's hardest hit regions, particularly as the United Kingdom grapples with the variant known as delta, or B.1.617."


“Despite the many uncertainties that lie ahead, experts say that early data from the U.K. and a new study just released in British Columbia point to the same way forward — getting as many shot in arms as soon as possible.” 


Viruses spread —  that’s what they do.  Be concerned, but let’s not build hurdles against safely re-opening society.  Focus, specifically, on any hard hit regions, but let’s vaccinate diligently and, now, permit businesses to re-open and serve patio lunches to entertain us once more.





"A recent study from Public Health England (PHE) looked at just how effective the first dose is against the delta variant.”


“The study found the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88 per cent effective against symptomatic disease from the delta variant two weeks after the second dose, compared to 93 per cent against the B.1.1.7 variant, also known as alpha.”


Very little has been mentioned about those of us who may be asymptomatic.  Are we?  Perhaps, the antibodies that were strengthened from an earlier ‘flu’ shot could have saved us (The focus of the anti-vaccers).   Have we been tested?  How many examples of today’s negative tests become positive tomorrow.  But we are told not to argue with science.


“Two doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford shot were found to be just 60 per cent effective against COVID-19 symptoms from delta, compared to 66 per cent against alpha.”


And a single dose of Pfizer and AstraZeneca were each only about 33 per cent effective against delta.”


No surprises here.


“Experts say it's important to remember that the study looked at the vaccine's ability to prevent COVID-19 symptoms, which can range from mild to severe, and the early estimates on vaccine effectiveness against the variants don't tell the whole story.” 


Really?


"One dose of the vaccine, whether it was Pfizer or AstraZeneca, still actually provided quite a bit of protection against severe illness and certainly against hospitalization," said Prof. Jason Kindrachuk, an assistant professor and Canada Research Chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba.”


"Yes we still need to get two doses, but you know what? Even with a single dose these vaccines work amazingly well.”


But you “need” two doses.  Really.


“Kindrachuk says that while delta reinforces the need to fully vaccinate high-risk individuals, like older Canadians and the immunocompromised, getting shots into as many arms as possible will continue to lower community transmission and the spread of variants overall.” 


My studies indicate that people in all age groups are dying.  It is easy to highlight “older” Canadians, while forgetting how vulnerable they are,  packed into long-term facilities will additional illnesses other than a coronavirus


"The best thing that we can do is stick to a vaccination plan and keep going with it until our entire population is covered by not just one, but two doses. That's going to be the most effective strategy — not trying to get too caught up in the drama of a new variant." 


As the abbot, who asked the novice, pointing to the sky, said,  “What do you see?”    “Your finger, Oh Master.”  was the excited reply. 


“New Canadian research from the B.C. Centre for Disease Control (BCCDC) also underscored the effectiveness of even just one dose of mRNA vaccines against the variants and provided new insight into the gamma variant, also known as P.1, for the first time.” 


Could this be the moment when someone shouts, “STOP THE PRESSES!”


"The preprint study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, found that a single dose of either Pfizer or Moderna cut the risk of COVID-19 for older adults by about two-thirds during the peak of the spring wave in B.C.”


“The observational study looked at close to 17,000 people aged 70 and older between April 4 and May 1 — a critical time when both the alpha and gamma made up about 70 per cent of cases circulating in the province.” 


If only people aged 70 and older were studied, how was this test defined — was there , or will there be, studies of those people aged 69 and younger …  or, for the moment, are we just guessing?


“Skowronski says the study provides the world's first vaccine effectiveness estimate against the gamma variant and was made possible due to the unique position B.C. found itself in, with multiple variants circulating at the same time unlike anywhere else in the world.”


"We were able to derive and show that protection was maintained against P.1, which remained an open question globally," Skowronski said. "So we have addressed that question and shown comparable protections to B.1.1.7." 


This is quite encouraging.


"Of course we want everybody to get the second dose but I still am very optimistic." 


Oh dear, here we go again!





“But Skowronski cautions Canadians not to draw too many conclusions from the data emerging from the U.K. on the delta variant, or any one study, due to the fact that it's largely observational and needs to be backed up by real-world immunogenicity research, which measures the immune responses that a vaccine generates.” 


“Immunogenicity”, now, there’s a nice word to encourage a research grant increase.


“Experts agree the biggest threat to Canadians at the moment isn't variants — despite the dizzying pace of research being released worldwide — it's not being vaccinated at all.” 


They’ll not give up, will they.


"What we can all do is get vaccinated and try to reduce our contacts to reduce the opportunity for the virus to mutate — that's going to be the biggest role that we can play in controlling variants." 


That, is a very good point.


"Vaccinations are going to keep getting out and once we hit that threshold, things are going to change very, very quickly. I think they already are, but I think they're going to change substantially in the next few weeks.”


“Weeks”?





Conclusion

May I remind you that I collated this information for a personal reason, using my Blog as the vehicle.  Additionally, it should reveal my belief against the Second vaccination because there is no crystal ball or proof that my asymptomatic body is quite fine and wishes to avoid any possible, dangerous, side effects.  But my planned vacation will require proof of Full vaccination. Ho-hum.



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